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AI拡張経済における人的資本:認知能力分解の統一理論とLLMによる測定
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ポイント
- 人的資本を身体・手作業、定型認知、拡張可能認知の3要素に分解し、AI資本との相互作用を分析しました。
- AIは定型認知業務を代替する一方、拡張可能認知業務を補完することで、賃金構造に変化をもたらす点が重要です。
- コロンビアの労働市場データを用いた分析で、AI導入による拡張可能認知能力への賃金プレミアムが確認されました。
Abstract
This paper proposes a decomposition of human capital into three orthogonal components -- physical-manual (H^P), routine-cognitive (H^C), and augmentable-cognitive (H^A) -- and develops a production function in which AI capital interacts asymmetrically with these components: substituting for routine cognitive work while complementing augmentable cognitive work through an amplification function phi(D). I derive a corrected Mincerian wage equation and show that the standard specification is misspecified in AI-augmented economies. Using LLM-generated measures of occupational augmentability for 18,796 O*NET task statements mapped to 440 Colombian occupations, merged with household survey microdata (N = 105,517 workers), I estimate the augmented Mincer equation. The wage return to H^A increases with AI adoption in the formal sector (beta_2 = +0.051, p < 0.001), while informal workers cannot capture augmentation rents (beta_2 = -0.044). A triple interaction confirms formality as the binding mechanism (beta_{AHC x D x Formal} = +0.272, p < 0.001). The augmentation premium is strongest for experienced workers (ages 46-65) and in health and education sectors. These results provide the first developing-country evidence of cognitive factor decomposition in AI-augmented labor markets and demonstrate that the binding constraint on human-AI complementarity in the Global South is not technology access but labor market institutions.
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